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I just noticed that this was posted in the NBA Betting Forum for some strange reason. So I wanted to bring it over to the MLB Betting Forum where it should of been from the start.
MLB REGULAR BETS

MIAMI -110
Miami has won 11 of the past 12 meetings with Washington, and now it looks like the Nats won't have superstar outfielder Juan Soto after he left Sunday's game with a left calf injury. Energized by a stunning, ninth-inning comeback victory in St. Louis on Wednesday, the Marlins are aiming for their fifth straight win overall and trying to convince the front office they're a playoff contender, not an also-ran whose players should be shipped out at the trade deadline. Soto (15 homers) is to be re-evaluated Monday. Miami shortstop Miguel Rojas (13 of 32, 3 HRs, 1.219 OPS versus Patrick Corbin) could have a big Fourth of July.

BEST OF LUCK TO EVERY ONE WITH THERE PICKS TODAY

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In order to conduct the research, BETUS pulled 100,000 tweets and forums for each team and ran them through a tool called TensiStrength to determine the level of stress and relaxation.
“Tensions are high for sports fans when it comes to the biggest games in the league, and Reddit and Twitter are safe spaces for them to let off some steam.” the website read.
In the NBA, the Philadelphia 76ers was listed as team with the most stressed fans, with 29% of tweets and forums qualifying as stressed. But the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers came just behind, tying for second with 27%.
The Chicago Bulls don’t seem to be too worried about their team, as 84% of their comments are chilled and positive, meaning that fans from the Windy City are more relaxed than the rest of the league.

This shit is so gah damn stupid lmao. How the fuck is football more predictable. Knicks blow a huge lead, lakers +8 lose by 9. Thankfully Celtics covered but now the Warriors who are literally a g league team with out the Chef are butt fucking the grizz?? Took Denver -3 so expect the suns to win by 50 lmao literally fuck the nba.
Merry Christmas 😂

-Pick a team and watch their games. Im a magic fan and hit on 75% of my bets this year.
-Under on center turnovers and steals- They rarely handle the ball, unless they are a big part of the offense like Joel Embiid or Jokic. Been hitting
-Check the injury report and who’s playing. Ex: steph curry is out- Jordan Poole is having more PT - go over on him. My team usually played 2 centers Bol Bol and WCj together and when bol got injured I went over on WCJ rebounds andihitbigtime

Just sharing a player stats resource that I built for NBA prop betting. My sports betting activity comes in cycles and I haven't used this or worked on it for a couple weeks, so I figured I would share it and hopefully allow others to get some use out of it. My goal was simply to write some scripts to save time from bouncing around websites and compiling prop lines, box scores, averages, and def vs position rankings. It's not perfect and I'm sure you can find some bugs, but hopefully some find it useful. https://props.sharpnumbers.com
Lines pulled from Bovada and defense vs position is calculated from NBA . com stats, that is why it's broken down by G/F/C and not PG, SG, SF, etc.

When talking about rotation, first of all, the overall characteristics of the Clippers players are clear:

• There are as many as seven formal contract players on the flank with a height of about 2 meters: Kawhi , PG, Batum, Mo, Coventon, Coffey and BJ.
• Among the flank players, there are many players with slow footstep in single defense (Batum, Mo, Coventon), but there are many players with excellent co-defense (Kawhi, PG, Bartum, Coventon)
• Lack of spatial big center in the interior: Zubac, Moses Brown and Diabate have no spatial attribute
• Defensive players in the guard line are not enough: only Mann's single defense and cooperative defense are acceptable, while Powell and Wall's single defense are acceptable, and the defense without the ball end is poor

Therefore, the core idea of the rotation of express ships should be:

• Reflect the advantage of more flanking players around 2m
• Highlight the player's ability to assist in defense and weaken the slow pace of player's single defense
• Make good use of the big center without space projection
• Make up for the backcourt defense

For the above, I think the team should establish:

• Take 2-3 joint defense as the team's regular defensive formation, and use other formations selectively
• Reuse Mann and Coffey

Why reuse Mann and Coffey:

• Young and physically strong, Mann 26, Coffey 25
• Step up guard
• Enough size, Mann 196, Coffey 201
• A certain number of shots
• Good at fast attack and counter attack

Focusing on the routine use of 2-3 joint defense, how should express ships rotate:

• Start with Mann, Coffey, PG, Leonard, Zubac
• Core rotation: Powell, Batum, Coventon
• Increase the use of Moses Brown/Diabate

Three defensive layers:

• Mann and Coffey, as the online defenders (Powell and Luke Kennard substitutes), will not change defense when facing the pick and roll, squeeze the screen or go around the screen. As the first layer of defense, what they need to do at the defensive end is to use 80% of their physical strength for defense, 20% of their physical strength for attack, fast attack and counter-attack at the offensive end, catch the ball for three points and empty cut without the ball (which Mann and Coffey are good at)
• Kawhi and PG are card swiping on both sides of the paint area (Batum and Coventon are two substitutes) as the second layer of defense
• Zubac squats as the third defense

Advantages:

• Consume the physical strength of Mann and Coffey, consume the opposite ball holding points against the opponent, and solve the problem of the Clippers' backcourt defense
• Enlarge the cooperative defense power of Kawhi, PG, Batum and Coventon
• Effective interior scoring and backcourt rebounding

Potential disadvantages:

• Miss a three-point shot

Check for defects:

• 2-3 Joint defense as a regular lineup in the regular season
• In the current five small systems, there is only a solution of Batum playing five small C, namely Batum+Kawhi+PG+Coffey+Mann. The use of a single game in the regular season should be controlled within 6 minutes at most

Transaction options:

• Deal Reggie
• Substitute center
• If the transaction cannot reach the space C, it is recommended to trade John Wall or reduce the use of John Wall
• Mo's attitude of ship management can only trade upward. If he can't trade, reduce the use time

“Orlando Magic is 1-6 but they scored 10 points first in all 7 games”
During the NBA playoffs last year, I noticed that the betting favorites and the eventual winner of the games more often than not don’t score 10 points first. It made me think this bet might be as close to random coin flip as you can get but it’s not priced as coin flips. (You can bet on which player scores the first basket but not which team to score first.)
Let’s look at how the odds are made for these bets. For example, let’s say team A is the favorite (-150) to win the game and team B is the underdog (+140). You would notice that the odds to win the first half is something like -135 for team A and +120 for team B because a shorter time period increases randomness. The odds to score 10 points first would be like -110 for team A and +105 for team B. For your information, the odds for the super bowl coin toss are -105 for both sides.
So what’s the betting strategy? If we know this bet in the long run has close to 50% win rate like a coin flip, then we want to bet on underdogs whose odds are greater or equal to +100. Essentially it becomes risk free and you are collecting premiums from taking the risk to bet on underdogs.
Let’s look at the data. You can say last year’s playoffs is a smaller sample size (when underdogs outperformed in this bet) but this year’s data shows the same thing - roughly 50% of the time the favorite get to 10 points first (maybe the sample size is still small).
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https://preview.redd.it/m1k8bx78tex91.png?width=689&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8bd43ac6be9c86b9acd7d2ff9582388ce93554f
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https://preview.redd.it/u9mxnus8tex91.png?width=579&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddcb2558cbffc15d319b0403faea1d180c29167d
What’s my result so far? I have bet on underdogs to score 10 points first in 59 games at +100 odds or better and won 30 times (+1 unit). Additionally, I gained 3. 15 units from winning with better +100 odds. If the win rate for this bet is 50% for the whole season, I expect to gain 20-30 units of premium from taking the risk to bet on underdogs.
Some observations so far:

1. There’s no home court advantage on this (also ~50% win rate for the home team)
2. Orlando Magic is 1-6 but 7 for 7 on scoring 10 points
3. Avoid betting on shitty teams on the road against top teams
4. Exclude certain teams in this strategy, for example, don’t bet on the Lakers and don’t bet against the Bucks

This strategy is easy enough for everyone to execute so no need for me to post daily. I will do more data analysis on this strategy and post an update every week. Good luck!

I have watched NBA casually years back, just been getting back into it this season, and it seems like the landscape of the NBA has changed quite a bit. My go-to would be parlaying money line and o/u total points, but lately I've been experimenting with same game parlays betting around popular players stat averages. What players and/or stats would be worth the ROI to research, in terms of odds?

Sports betting was federally outlawed in the U.S. up until 2018 when the PASP Act was repealed by the Supreme Court. The one loophole behind this was Fantasy sports which have always been legal. This allowed companies like FanDuel and DraftKings to establish real money exchange user bases and advertisements. Since 2018 these companies have shifted their focus on growing sports gambling and have partnered with the NBA and NBA teams as official sponsors. Sports gambling is now legal in 30 out of 50 states and on the ballot in many others. Has Sports betting impacted the way you watch the NBA or how you think the game is officiated?