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This thread will follow the same outline as previous weeks.

Vote on the matchup YOU want to see analyzed.

We are always looking to bring our community the best betting information and analysis in the industry. One way we’re looking to do this is by bringing more perspectives into the Forum. This NFL season we will be hosting a thread each week in the NFL Betting Forum where one of our sports betting analysts will break down a game for everyone. The best part of this will be the open ended communication that is encouraged to take place from community members. This is your chance to ask our analysts 'how', 'why', 'what' and 'to describe' anything in their analysis. What makes it more valuable is you and the rest of the community will get to vote one the matchup of the week.

Some other notables:
Weekly polls will open on Fridays for the following week’s matchups.
Weekly polls will close Monday’s after the primetime game.
analysts will be following most games but not every game. We have freelancers who follow these other games who, unfortunately, won’t be able to host forum threads.
Thursday games will not be available to choose from. We want to give our analysts at most a week’s notice and since the poll will be posted on Friday’s this doesn’t work out.

We're really excited about this event and we hope it will provide you some valuable information each week.

Matchup of the week analysis voted on by the community - Cincinnati @ Dallas

We are always looking to bring our community the best betting information and analysis in the industry. One way we’re looking to do this is by bringing more perspectives into the Forum. This NFL season we will be hosting a thread each week in the NFL Betting Forum where one of our sports betting analysts will break down a game for everyone. The best part of this will be the open ended communication that is encouraged to take place from community members. This is your chance to ask our analysts 'how', 'why', 'what' and 'to describe' anything in their analysis. What makes it more valuable is you and the rest of the community will get to vote one the matchup of the week.

Some other notables:
Weekly polls will open on Fridays for the following week’s matchups.
Weekly polls will close Sunday’s after the primetime game.
analysts will be following most games but not every game. We have freelancers who follow these other games who, unfortunately, won’t be able to host forum threads.
Thursday games will not be available to choose from. We want to give our analysts at most a week’s notice and since the poll will be posted on Friday’s this doesn’t work out.

We're really excited about this event and we hope it will provide you some valuable information each week.

NFL Week 2 - Matchup of the Week Poll

New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns 09/18/2022 Sunday’s Preview, Odds and Tips

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs 10/16/2022 Odds, Picks and Tips

Jalen Hurts becomes betting favorite to win NFL MVP

[Brack] The Kansas City Chiefs are narrowly the betting favorites as DeAndre Hopkins team next NFL season over the New England Patriots per bookies.com: Chiefs +300 Pats +325 Packers +450 Cowboys ++550 Giants +750 Lions +1000 Field +500

Online poker being banned in most states, while betting on NFL games isn't, is as American as we can get.

[Pelissero] The NFL is suspending Jets receivers coach Miles Austin for violating the league’s gambling policy, per sources. There’s no indication Austin bet on NFL games as a coach but bet on other sports which violates NFL personnel gambling policy.

[O'Brien] The #Jaguars are trading for #Falcons WR Calvin Ridley, per multiple sources. Compensation still being finalized. Ridley is currently serving a suspension for betting on NFL games during the 2021 season.

was it a fallacy to pull the alarm prematurely by some of the biggest bulls on this forum, or, is it yet another setup for disappointment for faithful bag-holders? am betting on the former. thoughts?

[Jake Arthur] The sports betting world has the Colts returning to the well for a veteran QB next year, declaring them the betting favorite for NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers next offseason.

NFL Playoff Change Scenarios and Betting Implications

[Mia Obrien] The #Jaguars are trading for #Falcons WR Calvin Ridley, per multiple sources. Compensation still being finalized. Ridley is currently serving a suspension for betting on NFL games during the 2021 season.

Why should I not place this NFL Futures Bet?

[Furones] Russell Wilson opens as the favorite for 2023 NFL Comeback Player of the Year at 4-to-1 odds, per BetOnline. I find these odds fascinating as they’re largely based on having a bad 2022 or being injured or otherwise unavailable. For my money, give me Calvin Ridley at 20 to 1.

[Obrien]The #Jaguars are trading for #Falcons WR Calvin Ridley, per multiple sources. Compensation still being finalized. Ridley is currently serving a suspension for betting on NFL games during the 2021 season.

/r/SuperBowlBetting - NFL Super Bowl Betting Tips, Picks & Odds Forum. This site covers all matters related to wagering on the 2022 Super Bowl. All predictions, prop bets and crazy parlays are welcome here. Online sportsbooks with the best lines, punters with the best o... (109600.00% growth)

Any SGP ideas for tonights NFL game? My SGP : Travis Kelce 2+TD, Chiefs ML, Patric Mahomes 300+ passing yards for +650 on bet 365

Sharpen the Public: Betting Trend Update - NFL Divisional Playoffs

Happy divisional Saturday everyone! Last week was a tough one trying to get a read on public betting trends before the playoffs, but we have some data now. Check out my updates to what we have been talking about year, and let me know what you think in the comments!

The public ended 129-136-6 ATS this year. Yet, during the wild card round they went 3-3 ATS. At kickoff the public was on the Niners, Jags, Bills, Giants, Bengals, and Buccaneers. If you remember last week's post, you will know they also ended the year on a great run of 11-5 ATS in Week 18. Based on that, we can infer the public is doing better than normal and is line for a bit of regression soon. I don't think we can infer anything yet regarding specific percentages because there is such a small sample size. However, the clear thing that I see is that the high public percentages did not fare well last week. The Bills and Bengals both had a larger than 75% public betting percentage and neither covered. This result aligns with the normal thought that as more bets come into a game (like the playoffs), the more common the bet, the less likely it is to hit. We also saw the opposite effect, where the less confident public (i.e. lower bet percentage) performed better at 2-1 ATS. Sadly, there is no public huge favorite as of right now, the only team that could possibly be based on the numbers right now is the Bengals. Here are the public's sides as of this morning:

Jaguars +9.5, Giants +7.5, Bengals +6, 49ers -3.5

Last week we had two teams fit our positive money percentage trend and it was the Giants and Bills. The positive trend comes about when the money percentage on a side is greater than 65%. So, with our limited sample size we cannot really infer anything from last week because the trend is 1-1 ATS in the playoffs. Remember, that trend throughout the regular season went 82-52 ATS and you can read more details on that here. My instinct says that we can really only be confident when the money ranges between 65%-75%, because anything higher is that too high category that the Bills fell into last week. The 65%-69% range was the best range throughout the year, and the Giants fell into the 70%-74% range last week, so that's where my logic is from. But, who really knows with limited data. As of right now here are the teams with the money and their actual percentage:

Jaguars +9.5 (69%), Giants +7.5 (59%), Bills -6 (51%), Cowboys +4 (76%)

The under was the bet to make this year in most games. Over the course of the season (even as the average Vegas total dropped from 46.2 to 41.5), the under hit in about 55% of the games this season. Yet, with an average total of 44.1 last week, five of the games went over? A week like last week betting totals is one of the reasons betting on the NFL can be so unpredictable sometimes. The public was positive betting the under throughout the regular season, yet went 0-2 last week. The sharp differential was great all year betting the under, it went 0-5 yesterday. And yes, the same is true for the money. My guess for this is that the number of bets is so inflated for these games there may be a lot more novice bettors than usual or the public genuinely just does not read games in the playoffs as well as they do in the regular season. I would love to hear what you guys think, so let me know in the comments! But what does that mean for this week? I would say the best thing we can do is fade the sharp differential, because 0-5 is a trend even if its only 5 games. Here are the games with a sharp differential towards the under.

Jaguars/Chiefs (52.5), 49ers/Cowboys (46)

Just as we saw throughout the regular season, the over has fared the opposite of the under. However, in the playoffs last week the over actually outperformed the under because when the public was on the over the games went 3-1 to the over. The one loss also obviously only went under by a half a point. So, the over is doing well; I honestly expect a similar result from the Divisional Round of the playoffs. No real trends currently stand out in favor of the over other than one that stands out for the under, sharp differential on ALL totals was 0-6 last week. So, in addition to that I will keep the note I gave out last week here: "When the public is heavy on an over 70% or more, in the last 4 weeks, they are 1-4. Extend that number to 65% and you're looking at the public being 5-9 and the money being 4-7 over the last 4 weeks." Below are the games with sharp differential towards the over:

Giants/Eagles (48.5), Bengals/Bills (49)

Last thing of course to cover is our good friend the sharp differential (for spreads). We have been able to be on the winning side tailing specific games falling into positive ranges all year with the sharp differential. And thankfully, the playoffs last week did not flip on us since the two teams with a large sharp differential (15%+) both covered in the Giants and Ravens. All other small sharp differentials did not cover (excluding the Cowboys who we know perform very well (5-1 ATS) when the sharp differential is on them). So, since it was so good during the regular season, I would imagine we can continue to keep high sharp differentials on our good trend list. Here are the teams with the sharp differential, and teams with 15%+ are bolded.

Jaguars +9.5, Giants +7.5, Bills -6, Cowboys +4
I have written stuff like this all year, and you can check out my full breakdown of the games and more details regarding the above, here. Thank you for reading and I appreciate your support! Best of luck today, let's have a better start than last week.

NFL betting: After a great Week 13, Bills are back as Super Bowl favorites

Which NFL Team is the Public's FAVORITE Team to Bet on?

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