Why is USAs -0.5 spread (-102) better odds than a USA win bet (-105)? Isn’t it the exact same bet? It’s not like American football where a tie would result in a push for the moneyline.
Thanks!

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Betting on soccer is preferred by most customers of betting shops. However, not all players stick to a particular strategy. And for good reason, because they help increase profits and avoid risky bets. Consider the best, from our point of view, soccer betting strategies. Let's find out how good they are in the long run and what steps a player should take.

Kelly Criterion for Football

Kelly criterion is one of the most effective strategies for betting on soccer. In this section, we will talk about the varieties, application and a few tips.
This is the formula closest to the original Kelly formula. Assuming that you have accurately estimated the team's capabilities, the formula determines the best bet from the pot:
Bet = (odds x Probability - 1) / (odds - 1)
The (Odds x Probability - 1) part of the formula can also be called the criterion for when a bet is appropriate. The result must always be positive. If you multiply the result by 100, you get a percentage of the pot that is spent on the bet.
Example
Betting fund: 1000 units. Betting odds on the selected event: 5 (corresponding to a 20% probability). Our calculated probability for the event: 0.25 (25%)
Bet = (5 x 0.25 - 1) / (5 - 1) = 0.0625
That means you have to bet 0.0625 x 100 = 6.25% of the whole pot. In our case it would turn out to be 62.5 units.
It is very important to know how to turn the offered betting rate into a probability rate, which is quite simple. You need to learn how to translate odds into probabilities and vice versa. To get the probability from the odds, you should divide 100 by the odds. Likewise, we get the odds if we divide 100 by the probability.
Using the classic Kelly criterion, you make money if your resulting odds for a particular event are lower than the bookie's. However, if the opposite is true, you will lose more money than a fixed-rate bet.
The Kelly criterion has rarely been used in its standard form, although it has been mathematically proven to be the most successful. The reason is that you will get a return after ups and downs. Sometimes the formula calculates that you need to spend more than 50% of the pot. This full version of the Kelly criterion is very risky, and even large betting funds can be reduced to one-tenth of the previous value.
Because of these sharp bank ups and downs, many bettors have abandoned this option, but that is why many use the so-called fractional Kelly.
You may also be interested: Expected goals.

Half Kelly, Quarter Kelly for soccer

These soccer betting strategies are not as profitable, but carry less risk. Generic Kelly is simply a variation of the Kelly criterion, where you bet a fraction of the amount recommended by full Kelly. Half and quarter Kelly are the most commonly used options, where you invest half or a quarter of the amount calculated by full Kelly.
Using this method, you will avoid the big financial ups and downs that occur in full Kelly. Sure, the gains won't be as big, but the losses won't be as painful.
The results of using it will not be half or a quarter of the results of using full Kelly, as people mistakenly think. This is not true, and often half and quarter Kelly can produce better results. This method is good when you score about the same ratio of wins to losses. Whereas a full Kelly, of course, is detrimental to finances. Determining the correct ratio is a player's decision. A half Kelly will suggest betting up to 30% of the pot, and a 1/4 Kelly will suggest betting up to 15%.

Constant Kelly

This pattern differs from full Kelly in that the player calculates the new bet as a percentage of the initial pot. In full Kelly, the player calculates the new bet as a percentage of the current betting pot. So, if you started with 1,000 units, with constant Kelly you will always calculate the bet as a percentage of 1,000 units.
The downside of this method is the fact that it will go out of the pot, however, you can also play with half or quarter bets. These soccer betting strategies can be used in both pre-match and in play.

Betting on Draws

Many customers of betting companies bet on wins or handicaps, or totals. But few choose a draw. They do not want to take risks, it seems to them that it is unpromising. But they are wrong: odds on a draw is often over 3, and a clean victory barely reaching 2. Let us tell you how to correctly bet on soccer "X's" to earn regularly.

How and how much to bet on a draw in soccer?

You can bet using different financial schemes:

• A fixed percentage of the bank;
• By Kelly criterion;

Let's analyze each scheme separately, learn how much money should be allocated in each case.
Fixed Percentage of the Bank (Flat)
This is the most reliable and affordable method, useful for beginners and for experienced bettors. First of all, it is necessary to determine what percentage of the bank you need to allocate for betting. Since betting on the market with odds of 3, it is optimal to spend up to 3% of the balance. That is, each time we divide the bank by 33, and obtain the size of the bet.
What does Flat give the player? First of all, a guarantee that for many bets he will not lose most of the pot. Secondly, he will have a good chance of stable earnings by choosing matches like the ones above. For a simple understanding, let us say that if a bettor wins 40% of bets with odds of 3.2, he will earn 30% of the turnover.

Soccer betting strategy: on the underdog

Often bets on weak, but motivated teams give a profit on the distance. After all, it is enough to have one winning bet to compensate for several previous losses, and get income. Let's look in detail at the strategy of betting on the soccer underdog, learn how to choose matches and what markets are suitable.
Positive handicap
We will bet on the plus handicap of a weak team. But before that, we look at the statistics of the results of personal meetings between the opponents, to make sure in the ability of the underdog not to lose big. Also we make sure the bookmakers' odds are too high.
Let us assume that in only one match out of five the conditional favorite has defeated the underdog with a margin of more than one goal. Moreover, in two matches the guests won. Now we look at the results of the last five home games of the favorite and five away games of the opponent.
We see that the strong team has won only once, and the underdog lost just as many times by a wide margin. And to complete the picture, let's say that the bookmaker's odds on the market (+1.5) for the underdog is 2.1.
This means that we have found a profitable bet. After all, the "weak" team has a little more than 50% of matches in which it has not lost with a difference of 2 or more goals. By the same algorithm we can find other matches of favorites with outsiders.
Motivation and staff problems
Be sure to take into account the favorite's personnel problems. What are some good examples of strong teams weakened by the absence of key players? First and foremost, let's remember Barcelona. When Messi is absent, the Catalans often stall. It is especially noticeable in the club's European Cup battles. In such periods it is good to bet on the opponents with handicaps +1.5 and + 2 with odds of 2 or more.
Motivation plays a significant role in betting on weak teams. When there are not very many rounds left before the end of the season, the outsiders begin to fight back and earn points. If they didn't play as hard in the previous rounds, then when only a few rounds remain, every match becomes decisive in the struggle to keep their place in the current division.
Style of play. When you get a little practice and browsing becomes routine, you will also consider some secondary factors when choosing your betting pairs. For example, each team's style of play is very important because previous results may show weaknesses against teams that put the bus in front of their goal and practice playing on the counterattack. Or maybe they have a special motivation against the clubs at the top of the table.
Find the best odds
We have already stressed many times that you should open as many accounts as possible in different bookmakers. Almost all bookmakers have different odds for the same event, and sometimes the difference is very big. You don't want to bet with odds of 2,3 when you have 2,5 at another bookmaker's office? Before you make a bet, take the last step and compare the quotes at different bookmakers' offices.

Betting Size

Flat Betting
It is possible to use the standard flat, when a bettor allocates from 4% to 5% of the current bank for each operation with odds from 2 to 3. The main goal of a player is to go past the break-even point and get in the black. To earn 20% betting at odds of 2.5, a person must win 48% of bets. And let it not be a win-win soccer betting strategy, but flat betting is reliable enough.
Note that in live often it is possible to catch large odds. And if you have accounts in different offices, it is even better, because you will be able to find options with odds 3 and higher.
Fibonacci System
If a player is really good at betting on odds of 3, he can use the Fibonacci system. This is a soft catch-up where the increase in bets comes out in this sequence:
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34
It is easy to see that the size of each bet is equal to the sum of the previous two bets. That is, after each loss, the size of the next bet is equal to the sum of the previous two. The first bet is 1% of the current pot. The next ones are also defined as a percentage of the pot.
It is not difficult to see that the bettor has 9 consecutive attempts. If he loses them, that leaves 12% of the pot. And it's also important that with each step, the potential profit increases. That is, it turns out not only to win back, but also earn more than the first steps. These soccer bets (strategies) give good chances for a steady growth of the bank.
Source: xgscore