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Article Link that includes screen shots:
https://www.cheatsheetpros.com/post/college-football-betting-picks-5-2-last-week
College Football Picks for Week 4!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
I had a few people ask me for the Sports Betting 101 video as they are new to sports betting so I’m putting the line below. I also had a few people request a YouTube video on “How I pick my college games” so that is also posted below. Last week our College Bets with 5-2 for the games that we posted but we discuss and play additional games in the Facebook chat group for premium members. The games below that I list a (1st Half) that means I’m going with a 1st half bet and then depending on how the game is going might take a 2nd half bet.
HOW TO VIDEOS:
YouTube: How I pick my College Games:
https://youtu.be/2HIFZZzdD0U
YouTube: Sports Betting 101 for Newbies:
https://youtu.be/VRUo-vUdGLM
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GEORGIA (-29.5) 1ST HALF OVER
CHEATSHEETPROS MODEL: GEORGIA 55 vs. KENT STATE 6
Last week Georgia 1H was one of our favorite plays. Our College Football CheatSheet projected this game 44-7 and the final was 48-7. South Carolina ranks around 56th in the nation and Georgia won 48-7, held a 30-17 FD edge and 547-306 yard edge and forced 3 turnovers. Kent State ranks 112th in the nation and with the 100th ranked offense and 113th ranked defense. Kent State has allowed 477.5 yards per game on defense. Look for Georgia to start off hot and then shut down in the 2nd half. They have only allowed 10 total points in 3 games. Line is a little high but still going to ride it.
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UCLA (-21 GAME/1st HALF) OVER COLORADO
CHEATSHEETPROS MODEL: UCLA 44, COLORADO 12
Colorado ranks 115th in the nation with the 117th rated offense and 107th rated defense. They are allowing a whopping 362 yards per game on the ground and UCLA ranks 29th in rushing yards per game with an average of 206.5. Other sites project this right around the Vegas spread: PFF (-18), FO (-21) and TRanks (-20) but we have this at (-31). Since our model is 10 points higher than the Vegas spread this game hits our radar for us to investigate! UCLA hasn’t really played anyone except South Alabama where they held a 32-31 win. Colorado has lost 49-7, 41-10 and 38-13 so UCLA should be able to move the ball and put some points on the board. Colorado against Minnesota last week lost 49-7, had a 29-14 FD deficit and allowed 500 total yards on defense and 334 rushing yards.
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UCF (-20.5/1ST HALF) OVER GEORGIA TECH
CHEATSHEETPROS MODEL: UCF 37 vs. GATECH 9
Last week UCF played Florida Atlantic and everyone was projecting this to be a close game and it started off that way but ended completely different. UCF won 40-14 and held a 32-18 FD edge and a whopping 653 YARDS to 296, WOW! Georgia Tech played Ole Miss last week and Ole Miss (1st Half) was another one of our easy winners! UCF isn’t Ole Miss but last week Ole Miss took a 42-0 win, 31-13 FD edge and 547-214 yard edge. The thing that jumps out at me on the College Football CheatSheet is the 17th rated offense for UCF facing the 103rd ranked defense for GaTech. I don’t always agree with Pointwise but this was also one of their top plays for this next weekend.
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UTAH (-14/1st HALF) OVER ARIZONA STATE
CHEATSHEETPROS MODEL: UTAH 34 vs. ARIZONA STATE 17
Last week Utah was another pick for us that was part of our 5-2 posted record and I even double dipped with 1st half and game line since we were having such a strong day. Utah rolled San Diego State 35-7 with a 22-9 FD edge and 398-173 yard edge. Our model has this game closer to the Vegas spread (-17) vs. (-14) but still like laying it with the Utes. Arizona State imploded last week as a (-20.5) favorite over Eastern Michigan losing the game 30-21. Looking into the game logs last week EMU held a 25-20 FD edge, 305-191 rushing yard edge and 458-380 total yard edge and they have USC on deck. Utah should smash in this spot and this line feels low as Utah has the 26th rated defense and Arizona State has the 106th rated defense and Arizona State gave up 450+ yards to Eastern Michigan who ranks 100th in the nation. What do you think the 12th rated team in the land will do to them?
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SOUTH ALABAMA (-13/1ST HALF) OVER LOUISIANA TECH
CHEATSHEETPROS MODEL: SOUTH ALABAMA 40 vs. LATECH 23
South Alabama could blow them out of the water and run away from this game. Our model has this around (-17) and Vegas (-13) feels like they pegged this low but I’ll take it! South Alabama opened the season rolling an unranked team 48-7 then followed it up with another win vs. Central Michigan as a +6 point dog. Last week they faced UCLA as a +15.5 point dog and almost won the game but ended up losing 32-31. South Alabama hung with UCLA 22-21 FDs, 407-399 total yards and both teams were 2-2 turnovers. UCLA is the 38th ranked team in the nation with the 10th best offense and 17th best defense and now South Alabama will face LaTech who ranks 90th & 126th. LAY IT!
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WASHINGTON (-14/1ST HALF) OVER STANFORD
CHEATSHEETPROS MODEL: WASHINGTON 42 vs. STANFORD 23
Stanford only has 2 games played this year so can’t really get a read on them but Washington is on fire right now. Their first 2 games they played weak schools and crushed them 45-20 and 52-6 but that doesn’t tell us anything. Then comes Week 3 and they face off against Michigan State and win 39-28 with a 24-21 first down edge and put up 503 total yards to only 365 of Michigan State. Michael Penix (QB) is a monster and would be in the Heisman conversation if he played for Alabama, Clemson, OU, etc. he has thrown for 397, 337 and 345 yards with 4, 2 and 4 touchdowns. Michigan State ranks 25th and Stanford ranks 76th. Since Washington has looked good and just knocked off #25 Michigan State I’m happy to lay it against Stanford.
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KANSAS TEAM TOTAL OVER 36.5 VS. DUKE
Nothing special here but I am from KC so watching a KU team explode to a 3-0 record putting up 56, 55 and 48 points I’m happy to ride the team total. Their defense ranks 110th so they need to score early and often and they are on a 3-0 run OVER this number. Duke has allowed 23 and 20 points to Northwestern (93rd) and North Carolina AT&T.
OTHER GAMES THAT POPPED ON THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHEATSHEET: Syracuse, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tulane, Minnesota, FSU, Cincinnati, Georgia Southern, Kansas.
Good Luck!
Haze

College Football Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
You Tube Video: (Bonus Games!) https://youtu.be/qnzO0iEIP04
WEEK 10 GAMES WE LIKE:
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SMU/MEMPHIS OVER 70.5

• 7th & 25th ranked offenses putting up 506 and 445 yards per game facing the 88th and 93rd defenses each allowing 418+ yards per game.
• Projected YPP numbers are way better than league average meaning these two teams are highly efficient at scoring points.

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APP STATE (-21) > Arkansas State

• PFF has this around -31.5 and we have our algo line at -21 so laying the points in this spot.
• Projected score 44-21 with App State winning by 23.
• Arkansas State (130th DEF) won't keep App State (21st OFF) from scoring a ton of points.
• 260+ yard edge projected for App State and they thrive in these spots against bad teams. Check 59-28 vs. LA Monroe and 45-16 vs. GA State. LAY IT!

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HOUSTON (-13) > SOUTH FLORIDA

• YPP (Yard per point) huge differences here with 10.3 vs. 17.1 giving a big edge to Houston and the efficiency of that offense.
• South Florida is 100th in offensive yards per game against the 14th defense.
• Projected model has 36-19 Houston (winning by 18) so laying the -13.
• Plus/Minus has Houston winning average score 36-23 and USF losing 20-34.

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BAYLOR (-6.5) > TCU

• PFF has this -14.5, we have it -7 and our projected score is 35-24 giving Baylor an 11 point win with a line of only -6.5 gotta lay it in this spot.
• TCU has the 119th rated defensive giving up 487 yards per game.
• Baylor 5-1 ATS last 6 games.
• TCU 1-6 ATS on the season.
• TCU at home is only 39% ATS since 2016.

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WISCONSIN (-13) >RUTGERS

• Wisconson 3-1 ATS last 4 while Rutgers 1-3 ATS last 4.
• PFF has this at -22 and we have it at -17 and the Vegas spread is only -13 so laying the points with the #1 defensive team allowing only 49.6 rushing yards per game and 165 passing yards per game.
• Rutgers 115th rated "O" will struggle vs. this Wisconsin "D". Lay it!

Several BONUS GAMES discussed on the YouTube Video!
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Free Group Link: www.Facebook.com/groups/HazeSheets/
Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze

ARTICLE LINK WILL SHOW THE SCREEN SHOTS:
https://www.cheatsheetpros.com/post/college-football-bets-for-week-5
College Football Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
We are going to dive into Week 5 of the College Football Season and look over the new version of the College Football Betting sheet! I cleaned it up a little and then moved some number around and pulled in Player Projections & Season Averages for those who are betting on player props or trying to bankrupt Prize Picks for their soft lines!
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BEST BETS FOR THE WEEKEND!
ARMY (-7.5) OVER BALL STATE
RUTGERS (+15.5) OVER OHIO STATE
BOSTON COLLEGE (+16) OVER CLEMSON
IOWA STATE (-34) OVER KANSAS
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TIER 2 BETS FOR THE WEEKEND:
WAKE FOREST (-7) OVER LOUISVILLE
ARKANSAS (+18) OVER GEORGIA
APP STATE (-10) OVER GEORGIA STATE
SYRACUSE (-4.5) OVER FLORIDA STATE
USC (-7) OVER COLORADO
CHARLOTTE (+11)+[OVER 54] OVER ILLINOIS
MARSHALL / MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER 65
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NOW LET'S CHECK SOME OF THOSE GAMES OUT ON OUR NCAA BETTING SHEET!
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ARMY (-7.5) OVER BALL STATE
My favorite and largest best of the weekend thus far. I love everything about this game! The "Cheat Line" is a custom line that has been tearing apart NFL so I moved it over to our CFB sheet. It does not stay true for large spread games and the teams have to be somewhat close but provides us with a bunch of valuable information. Our "Cheat Line" has Army -18 and Vegas only has -7.5 so that was the first thing that caught my eye. Second, was the yardage model also has a HUGE edge to Army by more than 150 yards. Third, the YPP (yard per point) for Army is 10.6 which is better than the league average at 15.5. That means this 150 yard edge should turn into 10-15 points. Now that also accounts for Ball State moving and scoring at a 15.5 YPP number (league average) but they are NOT they are at 23.4 which is horrible! ARMY's #2 rushing "O" with 344.5 YPG is going to ROLL over Ball State and their 111th ranked rushing "D" giving up 229.7 YPG. LAY IT!
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RUTGERS (+15.5) OVER OHIO STATE
Now this game is a little tricky because the Algo Line is Ohio State -18 and the spread is only -15.5 but this is a game I turned to the "Cheat Line". The main reason is I thought Rutgers would of got thumped by Michigan last week and they did not, they played well and that "D" looked great. Rutgers "D" is solid coming in at 20th in rush yards per game allowed at only 97.3 and passing yards per game 167.3 (18th). Ohio State is giving up over 400 defensive yards per game and Rutgers only 264. Ohio State is putting up 559 on offensive yards and Rutgers only 304 but if they can put together any points I'm all over the +15.5 number. Michgan has a Pointwise Power Ranking of 57 and Ohio State is 59 so I put those two teams in the same tier. Last week Rutgers lost to Michigan 20-13 but took them in first downs 21-15 and rush yards 196 to 112. TAKE THE POINTS!
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BOSTON COLLEGE (+16) OVER CLEMSON
Can you have any faith in a bet on Clemson laying -16? That would be a shocker for me! I grabbed the points as soon as it posted on my book. Clemson lost to GA TECH 14-8 at a -28 point favorite and then lost to NC State in OT as a -10.5 poin favorite by a score of 27-21. They are averaging a whopping 17.5 points per game over the last two games that were against winnable opponents! Just out of curiousity I want to check the Pointwise Power Rankings for those opponents and see how Boston College looks. Ga Tech is 45 and NC State is 52 and Boston College is 47. Pointwise also gives Boston College a +4 home field advantage which is one of the higher teams in CFB. The "Cheat Line" has this game as Boston College -10 and they are getting +16. Clemson has also been horrible on offensive with a 17.9 YPP (yard per point) which worse than league average. Yes that seems crazy and no I don't think BC should be a -10 favorite but that does mean that +16 is a good wager. Clemson (113th) in rushing "O" and 117th in pasing "O". TAKE THE POINTS!
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IOWA STATE (-34) OVER KANSAS
This is a lopsided matchup so don't even bother with the "Cheat Line" as we have #122 vs. #20. I love lopsided matchups and this is one that I want to jump on. Iowa State @ HOME facing a terrible KU defense that is giving up 267 rushing yards per game (125th) and 280 passing yards per game (105th). Kansas is allowing 547 defensive yards per game and Iowa State has been putting up 437 in some tough matchups! We are projecting them in our yardage model to be somewhere between 492 and 540. So figure 500 yards with a YPP around 11 is 45 points. So could we see this game at 45-10, 45-7 or 45-3 or better? YES WE CAN! Okay! Let me try to convince you some more! Last week Baylor beat Iowa State 31-29... but.... did you know Iowa State took them in first downs 27-15, rushing yards 216-121 and passing yards 263 to 164 and total yards was 479 to 285! If they put up 479 yards against Baylor who has a Pointwise Power Rank of 49 what do you think they will do against Kansas who has a Pointwise Power Rank of only 22? BAR THE DOOR KATIE AND LAY THE POINTS!
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WAKE FOREST (-7) OVER LOUISVILLE
"Cheat Line" has this game at Wake Forest -9 with around a 135 yard edge. Typically, this isn't a "play" due to the Vegas line close to our line but I made it a T2 play because why not? Wake Forest is hot right now as they went on the road last week to Virginia (Power Rank 42) as a +3.5 dog and beat them by 20 points 37-17. Louisville plays FSU (Power Rank 39) and let them put up 453 yards and only beat them 31-23. Both team clicking on "O" putting up 417 and 436 yards per game but Wake allowing less on "D" 480-365 which is the edge here. Also, I like that Wake has a +24 edge as they are scoring 38 PPG while allowing 13.7 and Louisville is scoring 32.3 PPG but allowing 33.7. WAKE & BAKE!
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USC (-7) OVER COLORADO
This game jumped out when I was running numbers as the "Cheat Line" has us at USC -15 and Vegas only has -7. After digging in a little further I decided this game was going to make the T2 cut of plays for Saturday. Algo line has -17, Cheat Line has -15 so I'll lay the 7. Colorado has the 106th ranked "O" putting up only 191 yards per game but they have played some semi-tough teams. USC has the 27th ranked "O" putting up 425 yards per game. Both teams giving up 389 and 391 on defense. We have this game projected around 28-13 but let's do some basic math. If we give Colorado a BUMP from their 191 yards per game up to 300 which is a middle ground at league average YPP of 15.5 that is around 20 points. But they are putting up a YPP of 28.6 so that would be around 9-10 points. So let's safely say CU will have between 9-20 points. USC is putting up 425 and CU is giving up almost 400 so we can safely say 400-420 yards is a likely outcome. USC has a YPP of 13.1 but league average is 15.5 so if we use 15.5 that is 26 poins and if we use 13 that is 31 points. So this game could easily be 31-21, 28-20, 28-17, 24-10 and safely cover the spread. LAY IT!
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CHARLOTTE (+11) PARLAYED WITH OVER 54 [PAYS +250]
I was leaning Charlotte +11 here and still like it as "Cheat Line" as this game CHAR -3 and we are getting +11 but after digging into the game I feel like if Charlotte is able to score at will they will be unable to stop Illinois on the other side thus cranking this OVER 54. I would recommend 1 unit and parlayed this would be +2.5 units. Less risk with a higher payout on a likely outcome! You notice the "Total DEF Flag!" in the top right corner? That is new this week and I've noticed games where the combined teams are allowing almost 1,000 yards on defensive become shootouts and score a shit ton of points! 954 total defensive yards allowed on the season by league average YPP number is 61.5 points and our model projects this game at 33-30 for a total of 63ish points. Illinois played a 13-9 games last week and 20-17 the week prior while Charlotte played a 42-39 game last week where they put up 572 yards and allowed 502 yards! They had 39 first downs in that game which is CRAZY! Charlotte can really move the ball and score some points!
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MARSHALL / MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER 65
Speaking of "Total DEF Flag!" I noticed my next play also popped the same flag! Marshall just played App State last week 31-30 and they lost to ECU 42-38 the week prior so they are scoring and giving up yards. Middle Tennessee is coming off a 42-39 loss to Charlotte last week so they are in the same boat. What I LOVE about this over is that these teams are 8th and 27th in passing yards per game putting up 355 and 284 per game. Passing is quick strike scoring which leads to big totals! The teams are also allowing the 78th and 94th most passing yards per game. Our model has this 38-31 putting up 68 total points sliding over that total of 65 in a burner!
Free Group Link: www.Facebook.com/groups/HazeSheets/
Premium Group Access: www.CheatSheetPros.com
Twitter Follow for DFS plays & Sports Bets: https://twitter.com/CheatSheetPros
Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze

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College Football Bets for Halloween Weekend!
Article Posted Last Week: 5-3 (62.5%)
https://www.cheatsheetpros.com/post/college-football-betting-picks-for-halloween-weekend
You Tube Video: (Bonus Games!) https://youtu.be/nEtrISHAy_Y
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HOW DID WE DO IN LAST WEEKS ARTICLE?
We ended up going 5-3 (62.5%) after dropped 2 of the first 3 games. They ended up looking like this:
CINCY (-28) > NAVY *Loss
OHIO STATE (-21) > INDIANA *WINNER (54-7 Final)
UAB (-23) > RICE *Loss
TEXAS A&M (-21) > SOUTH CAROLINA *WINNER (44-14 Final)
MISS STATE (-21) > VANDY *WINNER
ALABAMA (-25) > TEN *WINNER (52-24 Final)
MINNESOTA (-5) > MARYLAND *WINNER
IOWA STATE (-7) > OSU *Loss
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CINCINNATI -25 > TULANE
Tulane is a terrible team and Cincy should roll this up after the poor performance last week. PFF even has this game around -35.5 and our algo has it closer to -24 so when there is a large difference I like to split the middle so that would give us around a -30 spread for Cincy. In the bottom right you can see the new skew testing model has this projected around 47-16 for a 31 point game. Tulane is allowing 539 yards on defense and ranks 116th in rush yards allowed and 128th in pass yards allowed. CINCY ROLLS!
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FLORIDA STATE (+9.5) > CLEMSON
Clemson has a solid “D” this year as they allow the 30th least rushing yards and 66th least passing yards per game for a total of 356.5 total yards on defense but that “O” has been awful. They are 117th in passing yards per game and 84th in rushing yards per game. They average 294 offensive yards per game which is keeping games close so grabbing points is the way to go. Clemson is also WINLESS ATS THIS YEAR! Clemson last 5 games only scored 17, 17, 98, 21 and 14 points and we are getting +9.5 on the other side? FSU has scored 59, 35 and 33 points last 3. We projected both teams to have around a 16.5 YPP and around 40-50 additional yards on the FSU side so taking the points in this spot.
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MINNESOTA (-7.5) > NORTHWESTERN
Both teams have a common opponent in the last 3 weeks and that is Nebraska. NW was rolled by NEB 56-7 around 3 weeks ago and MIN beat NEB 30-23 two weeks ago so that peaks my interest to look a little further into this game. The good thing about this game is that PFF has it at -18.5 and our algo has -12 so both models have this covering the low spread. The main key here is the MINNY DEF which is allowing the 5th least amount of rushing yards and 62nd least passing yards for a total of only 312 yards on defense. We projected NW to run at a 16.94 YPP so even if they get the 312 yards that is only 18.4 points and they average 19.0 per game so that’s pretty close. Now the question is can Minny “O” get to 27+? We have them projected at a 15 YPP but NW is allowing 461 yards on “D” so that puts them around 30-31 points in a perfect scenario. Last week MIN lead Maryland in FD 26-14, rush yards 326-79 and total yards 451-268. NW had a tough game against Michigan and were outgained 457-240 in total yards and 28-10 in FDs and allowed Michigan to run for 294 rushing yards. MINNY is 22nd in rushing yards per game so I think they get to the 30 spot and cover this line!
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IOWA STATE (-7) > WEST VIRGINIA
I debated an SMU play here but will save it for the YouTube video when I hit the extra games. PFF has this -10.5 and our algo has it even higher at -12 and the new skew model that I’m testing has this projected around 32-18 with Iowa State winning by 14. Iowa State holds the edge on both sides of the ball as they are better in offensive yards per game at 445-368 and allow fewer defensive yards per game 400-261. We project both teams around a 14.7 to 15.5 YPP so in the same range but we have Iowa State putting up over 450 total yards and West Virginia only around 300. Iowa State played a great game last week against a ranked OSU and lead them in total yards 374-332 and FD 18-16 and OSU has a 56 power ranking and they get a much easier WV team with a power ranking of only 46. Iowa State has only allowed 21, 20 and 7 points L3 games while scoring 24, 33 and 59. LAY IT!
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WAKE FOREST (-16.5) > DUKE
WF comes in with a power ranking of 50 and Duke is 30 making WF roughly a 20 point better team on a neutral field. Last week Wake Forest rolled up Army 70-56 putting up 640 yards of offense. Duke has been on a downward slide losing their last game 48-0 to Virginia, then 31-27 to Ga Tech and 38-7 vs. UNC. That is a 34-117 point deficit last 3 games for you math wizards out there. Our algo has this at WF -23 and PFF has -14.5 so you can split it and it’s around the Vegas line. Going against the downward slide of Duke.
Bonus Games on the YouTube Video!
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Free Group Link: www.Facebook.com/groups/HazeSheets/
Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze