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So, my mate is telling me that X team will probably win because X team has all the money on them.
So for instance,
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/public-betting
It says that 83% of the public money is on the Titans. Does that mean that there is a better chance that the Bengals will win outright or cover?
Same with the Bills and Chiefs, with more money on the Chiefs.
If this is true, how often is it right as a percentage?

Happy divisional Saturday everyone! Last week was a tough one trying to get a read on public betting trends before the playoffs, but we have some data now. Check out my updates to what we have been talking about year, and let me know what you think in the comments!

The public ended 129-136-6 ATS this year. Yet, during the wild card round they went 3-3 ATS. At kickoff the public was on the Niners, Jags, Bills, Giants, Bengals, and Buccaneers. If you remember last week's post, you will know they also ended the year on a great run of 11-5 ATS in Week 18. Based on that, we can infer the public is doing better than normal and is line for a bit of regression soon. I don't think we can infer anything yet regarding specific percentages because there is such a small sample size. However, the clear thing that I see is that the high public percentages did not fare well last week. The Bills and Bengals both had a larger than 75% public betting percentage and neither covered. This result aligns with the normal thought that as more bets come into a game (like the playoffs), the more common the bet, the less likely it is to hit. We also saw the opposite effect, where the less confident public (i.e. lower bet percentage) performed better at 2-1 ATS. Sadly, there is no public huge favorite as of right now, the only team that could possibly be based on the numbers right now is the Bengals. Here are the public's sides as of this morning:

Jaguars +9.5, Giants +7.5, Bengals +6, 49ers -3.5

Last week we had two teams fit our positive money percentage trend and it was the Giants and Bills. The positive trend comes about when the money percentage on a side is greater than 65%. So, with our limited sample size we cannot really infer anything from last week because the trend is 1-1 ATS in the playoffs. Remember, that trend throughout the regular season went 82-52 ATS and you can read more details on that here. My instinct says that we can really only be confident when the money ranges between 65%-75%, because anything higher is that too high category that the Bills fell into last week. The 65%-69% range was the best range throughout the year, and the Giants fell into the 70%-74% range last week, so that's where my logic is from. But, who really knows with limited data. As of right now here are the teams with the money and their actual percentage:

Jaguars +9.5 (69%), Giants +7.5 (59%), Bills -6 (51%), Cowboys +4 (76%)

The under was the bet to make this year in most games. Over the course of the season (even as the average Vegas total dropped from 46.2 to 41.5), the under hit in about 55% of the games this season. Yet, with an average total of 44.1 last week, five of the games went over? A week like last week betting totals is one of the reasons betting on the NFL can be so unpredictable sometimes. The public was positive betting the under throughout the regular season, yet went 0-2 last week. The sharp differential was great all year betting the under, it went 0-5 yesterday. And yes, the same is true for the money. My guess for this is that the number of bets is so inflated for these games there may be a lot more novice bettors than usual or the public genuinely just does not read games in the playoffs as well as they do in the regular season. I would love to hear what you guys think, so let me know in the comments! But what does that mean for this week? I would say the best thing we can do is fade the sharp differential, because 0-5 is a trend even if its only 5 games. Here are the games with a sharp differential towards the under.

Jaguars/Chiefs (52.5), 49ers/Cowboys (46)

Just as we saw throughout the regular season, the over has fared the opposite of the under. However, in the playoffs last week the over actually outperformed the under because when the public was on the over the games went 3-1 to the over. The one loss also obviously only went under by a half a point. So, the over is doing well; I honestly expect a similar result from the Divisional Round of the playoffs. No real trends currently stand out in favor of the over other than one that stands out for the under, sharp differential on ALL totals was 0-6 last week. So, in addition to that I will keep the note I gave out last week here: "When the public is heavy on an over 70% or more, in the last 4 weeks, they are 1-4. Extend that number to 65% and you're looking at the public being 5-9 and the money being 4-7 over the last 4 weeks." Below are the games with sharp differential towards the over:

Giants/Eagles (48.5), Bengals/Bills (49)

Last thing of course to cover is our good friend the sharp differential (for spreads). We have been able to be on the winning side tailing specific games falling into positive ranges all year with the sharp differential. And thankfully, the playoffs last week did not flip on us since the two teams with a large sharp differential (15%+) both covered in the Giants and Ravens. All other small sharp differentials did not cover (excluding the Cowboys who we know perform very well (5-1 ATS) when the sharp differential is on them). So, since it was so good during the regular season, I would imagine we can continue to keep high sharp differentials on our good trend list. Here are the teams with the sharp differential, and teams with 15%+ are bolded.

Jaguars +9.5, Giants +7.5, Bills -6, Cowboys +4
I have written stuff like this all year, and you can check out my full breakdown of the games and more details regarding the above, here. Thank you for reading and I appreciate your support! Best of luck today, let's have a better start than last week.

Hi all! Some of you may know me as the GEICO Trend guy or from my podcast Sharpen the Public, but now that we are nearing the end of the NFL Season I have some awesome data to discuss with everyone. If you had to guess, which team do you think the public has bet on the most this year?
Basically, in order to qualify, the team must have had 50% or more of the bet percentage on the Action Network this year. Your hints are, it's not the Bills, and there are 2 teams tied with 11 games the public has bet on them.
Curious to hear who and why people choose!
Edit: Now that they’ve both been guessed I’ll edit the post
It’s the Ravens and the Raiders! Two teams I never would’ve thought. Feel free to continue discussing why it would be them here!

https://www.happyhoursports.net/post/nfl-divisional-round-best-bets-saturday-january-21-2023

What's up all, should be an incredibly juicy Sunday before the playoffs today! With one week left in the regular season we have so much information to use to our advantage. Check out the updates to our public betting trends and how we can find some value in the great slate:

The public is 118-131 ATS to date. They went 7-8 and are floating around .500 to end the year. Now, its still impressive to me they are hitting at 47% this year despite some bad weeks. We said it on the podcast, but this is the public's best average in the last couple of year. Clearly, fading the public is not always worth it, unless you have the means to bet basically every game (even then you are only barely positive IF all of your plays are -110). Taking a closer look here is how the public fares in each confidence range: 50-54% of bets - 37-33 ATS (4-1 last week), 55-59% - 33-41 ATS (0-2 last week), 60-64% - 22-26 ATS (0-3 last week), 65-69% - 14-17 ATS (3-1 last week), 70-74% - 6-7 ATS, and 75%+ - 6-7 ATS. If you are looking to blindly fade the public, do so when the bet percentage falls between 55-59% or 65-69%, otherwise you have to be pretty damn sharp. My biggest take away from this data, is do not be scared when the public is heavy on one side, it may indicate slight overconfidence, but not nearly as much as you would think. One thing I plan to dig deeper into over the offseason, is how the public's favorite team fared each week, so look out for that! For this week we will focus on trying to bet with the public's HOT range (50-54%), since it is 15-6 over the last few weeks (4-1 last week). You will see all teams the public is on below, with teams CURRENTLY at 50-54% of bets bolded. The teams fitting these trends will change before kickoff, so please keep that in mind. Last thing on the public this week too is make sure to consider playoff implications. Typically, the public likes to favor teams that need to win, but history favors teams that like to stop them in their tracks. Teams that should want to win are the Eagles, Seahawks, Lions, Packers, Steelers, Dolphins, Patriots, Cowboys, 49ers, Ravens, Bengals, Bills.

Vikings -7, Colts -2.5, Ravens +9.5, Jets +4, Panthers +3.5, Bills -7.5, Buccaneers +4, Steelers -2.5, Rams +6, Chargers +3.5, Giants +16.5, 49ers -14.5, Cowboys -7, Lions +4.5

The key money percentage trend still includes teams with greater than 65% of the money/handle being 74-49 ATS and teams specifically in the range of 65-69% of the money being 24-11 ATS to date. It's a tight range to fit into, so it is important to consider this as close to gametime as possible (same with above). I like to view this trend from the perspective of being able to say Vegas is not fixing games with high money percentages. 74-49 is very significant, and gives us confidence when tailing games with high money percentages. On the other hand, the only poor trend for the money percentage is when it falls between 60-64%. It is 15-31 ATS to date. One team currently fits the 24-11 trend, the Giants +16.5, but here are teams that fit the greater than 65% criteria:

Vikings -7, Bengals -9.5, Panthers +3.5, Rams +6, Broncos -3.5, Giants +16.5, Commanders +7, Lions +4.5

I said a few weeks ago the under was losing its reign of king of the totals. Since then the public is 11-4 betting the under. The overall under records are also still very strong. Is the public back to their historic trend of positively betting the under? Week 18 will show us. However, here are the key stats: When the money percentage is on the under, those games are 90-70 towards the under, and when the sharp differential is on the under, those games are 100-70 to the under, and when the public is on the over, those games are 84-61 to the under. As is common these days in the NFL, 11 games have a sharp differential in favor of the under. Also, remember whenever the under has 60% or more of the bets, the unders are 26-15 and when the sharp differential towards the under is 20-29% (golden rule) those unders are 44-18. Anyway, here are the sharps are on the under (bolded are golden rule opportunities):

Texans/Colts (37.5), Ravens/Bengals (39.5), Jets/Dolphins (37), Patriots/Bills (43.5), Buccaneers/Falcons (40), Browns/Steelers (40.5), Rams/Seahawks (41.5), Chargers/Broncos (40), Cardinals/49ers (39.5), Commanders/Cowboys (40.5), Lions/Packers (49)

We have had few overs to pick over the last couple of weeks because our only good over trend is 11-2 (only happened 13 times throughout the year). That trend is specifically, between the range of 20% and 30% overs are 11-2 (golden rule). We currently have ONE game that could possibly land there today, the Eagles/Giants game. I should also highlight the public is 61-84 when on the over this year and 17-33 when they are on it more than 65%. Last trend is sharps towards over between 10-19% are 4-15. Here are the games where the public is betting the over (bolded are >65%):

Vikings/Bears (42.5), Texans/Colts (37.5), Patriots/Bills (43.5), Rams/Seahawks (41.5), Giants/Eagles (41.5), Cardinals/49ers (39.5), Commanders/Cowboys (40.5), Lions/Packers (49)

The favorite spread trend throughout the year has been when the sharp differential is 15% or more. I had dubbed it the GEICO trend on the podcast. This trend was 19-2 through week 4, but has since come to 70-45 ATS. Looking deeper into that trend we can find that specifically between 20 and 29% sharp differentials, teams are 37-20 ATS (above 30% is 11-9 ATS). Something that is very profitable, and should be considered for everyone's bets. This is the Golden Rule trend. When placing your bets, please consider the sharp differential. As of right now, here are the teams that fit the Geico trend (bolded teams have greater than 20% (I expect most games >30% to fall into the 20-29 range by kickoff)):

Vikings -7, Bengals -9.5, Falcons -3.5, Rams +6, Broncos -3, Commanders +7

A new consideration we added is the Golden Rule across all bet types. You may be noticing it, but anytime the sharp differential is between 20-30% on any wager type (spreads, overs and, unders), it's doing pretty well. 37-20 on spreads, 44-18 on unders, and 11-2 on overs. This is incredible, and is a total 92-40 across all bet types. I mean, what else is there to say? Here is everything that has a 20-30% sharp differential as of right now.

Bengals -9.5, Rams +6, Lions +3.5, Jets/Dolphins (u37), Rams/Seahawks (u42.5), Chargers/Broncos (u39.5)
If you find this stuff interesting, check out my full analysis and breakdown here! It includes my best bets for today and a lot of other data I track.

Happy Saturday everyone, here’s your public betting trend update before tomorrow!
We have been killing it using the sharpen the public methods on the totals so here are things to keep in mind before tomorrow.
The public is still horrible when betting overs. As a whole this year when the public is on the over they are 30-55 lmao. They went 0-5 last week and don’t show any signs of slowing up. Additionally, any time the public bet percentage is on the over greater than 65% they are 3-20 (!!!). Here’s the games as of right now that the public is on the over (bolded are greater than 65%): Browns/Dolphins, Lions/Bears, Jags/Chiefs, Texans/Giants, Cowboys/Packers
Next, if you’ve been following my posts you’ll know the importance of looking at the differential between the money and bets on games. We’ve seen a nearly linear improvement in record ATS as the differential increases on teams. The peak of the record is 20-7 when the differential is between 20-30%. Here are the teams that currently fit this criteria: Bucs, Browns, Vikings, Packers, Eagles
Remember, most bets are placed Sunday, so teams that fall in these ranges is bound to change. However, east money indication is always a great thing to look out and I want to be as transparent with these trends as I can!
Stay tuned for a more detailed update tomorrow morning here on Reddit and in my article. Thanks for reading and as always best of luck!

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0dKxqfn1AqKmSccRo3tLl4?si=SYmA8R6DSmqYxKCyRyDRrA
It's never been easy to make money betting on the NFL, but there are trends out there to help you out. Since you want to improve your sports gambling record, you need to start considering public betting trends. Join DJ and Andy as they update you on public betting trends in the NFL, such as trends that are 74-30, 29-13, 20-5, and even 15-3. Sports betting is difficult and there is no proven way to beat the books, however, here at Happy Hour Sports we are focused on bringing you informative betting content, to make your dreams of betting on sports as a full time job a reality. Never miss a trend by subscribing for free, here!

https://open.spotify.com/episode/67T1bLcsVv0DAbnXw20GKq?si=7e9c848a2a10438c
Thanksgiving Day has passed and we are starting Christmas Season aka the best time to win more of your NFL Bets. We have identified super strong trends all year leading to us and followers cashing their tickets, however, we may have found the best trend yet. Do you want to find out how to go 62-25 in the NFL? Join DJ and Andy as they discuss more public betting trends like ones that are 10-2 and 19-5 in the NFL. You will also hear about how the public continues to be bad at betting the over, how you can use public betting data to win more bets, and you will learn about the best trend DJ has found yet...62-25.

Hi all,
Hopefully at some point you have seen my posts in this sub regarding public betting trends and how useful they can be. Today I released a new episode of my podcast and one thing that came up was which team is the public's favorite to bet on. I thought it was a really interesting question, so feel free to discuss in the comments, what you guys think! Hint: it's not obvious, and there are two teams that are tied at the top with having been bet on 11 times by the public! The answer is in my podcast, but I will tell people if they guess correctly here!

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It's time to get in on the action.
You're an active NFL Gambler, and you know that it can be hard to find unique information about the latest trends in sports gambling. Too often, betting sites and experts just tell you what you want to hear—and it may be useless.
Welcome to Sharpen the Public. We give our listeners real, actionable information about how to win more bets and make more money betting the NFL. Join DJ and Rick as they present new public betting information each week to help you win more of your bets. Today they cover several incredible trends like ones where you could go 20-3, 20-7, or 65-34 just betting blindly. DJ also answers questions from his listeners, stuff you cannot miss!
No on else is looking at NFL betting like this, so learn how to leverage public betting data only here. Every week Happy Hour Sports brings you updated information you don't want to miss. So, follow the podcast and share it with someone who needs to be sharpened. Let's go!
Subscribe to the website to never miss an article detailing the trends! Article comes out every Sunday morning before the games.

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