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Been watching MMA closely since 2009. Started betting on it 5 years ago. Here are my lessoned learned. By the way these are what I interpreted, I could be absolutely wrong so feel free to rip me apart.
- Patience, stick with fights that speak to you:
I noticed that fights and lines I identified early on and felt very confident about I'm correct 95% of the time. My issue is that I'd get impatient and want to grow my bankroll faster and bet on other fights. Those were the fights i'd lose and then have no money left to bet on the ones I identified. It sucks blowing your load early, than watching a fight you identified hit the next week. This year I practiced patience and only bet on fights that I identified and they all hit.
Moral of the story is No, you don't need to bet on mackenzie dern or this random Russian this week. You can sit out cards.
2. Look Ahead: This is one that could be incorrect, but it worked well for me. I look very far ahead for fights I like and then place the bets 1-2 weeks early. I noticed that favorites will move -50 to -100 by fight night. Example I got Brown at -250 and he finished at -340 by fight night. You don't see the weigh ins but if you pick fighters that are professional you should be good.
- Don't bet the house on fighters you don't know
Every time I tail someone else's post about how this fight is a "lock" I always seem to lose. And it sucks to lose that way. If I'm going to bet heavy, it's going to be on fighters I know.
- Bet heavy on studs vs olds
That was my strategy this year. The UFC has 0 respect for their vets and books over value them. They pair them against solid proven fighters in the prime of their careers. Those are the fights I picked and bet my entire bank roll. fights I hit below.
- Brown vs Trinaldo (close one)
- Costa Vs Rockhold
- Chito vs Dom
- Merab vs Aldo
- Krylov vs Gustafasson
- Fiziev vs RDA
- Chandler vs Ferguson
- Puellos vs Guida
- Song vs Moraes
- Holland vs Cowboy Oliveria
- Khazmat and Li would of killed tony and Nate
If you are patient and bet these fights early you can get good odds. The only person who burned me on this strategy was Glover, though he burned me 3 times. keep in mind stay away from vets vs rookies.
- Never bet the house on young untested fighters no matter who they are fighting.
story as old as time, a new fighter is on a tear and looks invincible. Is being set up with an old vet to prop him up. But the vet provides a look that confuses or frustrates him/her and they end up losing. Recent ones that come to memory are Daniel Zellhuber, I know that I got burned on Nathaniel Wood when he fought Dodson. It's not that these fighters are bad, it's that MMA is so vast in techniques sometimes you just need to see different looks.
So never bet the house on young fighters unless they've been tested.
- My limit is -300
I won't mess with any odds worse than that. Unless it's a super lock (khazmat vs Diaz) even then I don't like it. -300 isn't worth the risk of a DQ.
- Don't bet the house on Poor fighters, even if they are super talented.
The UFC hardly pays, so these guys often times hide severe injuries knowing they're fucked but need that paycheck. That's why you have fighters like Geoff Neal who was nearly dying of diverticilousis fighting against Neal Magny. Then once healed, looks like the world beater he more accurately is against Luque. Bet heavy on guys that are further into their career have the funds to be a bit more protective of their health, like Rob Whittaker. Don't bet the house on fighters that aren't financially secure.
- It's tough fighting on the road/over timezones
Arriving week early isn't enough. It's why these asian fighters underperform here and US fighters underperform in Asia. Check to see where these guys are training camp is and if it's a big time difference be wary.
Volk, Tai, and Whitakker seem to be immune to it though.
- Some fighters are just not UFC quality:
Randy costa comes to mind. Jared Vanderaa is another one.
And then the big one that my friend that works at Ceasars Sportsbook told me.
- PROFESSIONAL SPORTS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY SEEM
The general public can't grasp how insanely good all professional athletes and teams are. The difference between the Atlanta Falcons and Cheifs is much closer than it seems. The public always likes to back favorites and books punish for that. Sportsbooks have a greater house edge than all table games. They trick the public to thinking they have an advantage with their knowledge, when in reality they would be better off not knowing anything.
Same concept to MMA, you might think this fighter is a bum but trust me, that fighter is insanely strong and tough. If a few random things go their way they can pull off the upset. Keep this in mind.
The list is making a return this year and I'll be a lot more consistent with it. With that being said, for the 1st 5 UFC events I'll only be posting my picks. I'll still be researching a few cappers and adding the most consistent ones to the final list. If you want me to track anyone's picks or even your own, let me know where to find them. Also, I'll take any suggestions on improving it for example someone commented they wanted me to track favorites and underdogs so that'll be on the new list. Finally, I want to send a shout-out to Slayers_Picks, a genuinely great member of the community who still posted picks despite the hard times (s)he went through last year. On top of that getting covid sucks so please send'em love on my behalf. Get well soon Slay! And hopefully, we all have a winning 2023! Good luck everyone and thanks for all the support last year!
submitted by This is the UFC 283 live blog for Paul Craig vs. Johnny Walker, the light heavyweight main card opener on Saturday in Rio de Janeiro. The pay-per-view portion of the UFC’s return to Brazil kicks Новости ММА (MMA), смешанные единоборства — бои в 2022 году, расписание, последние титульные бои, онлайн-трансляции - Чемпионат. Новости AO-2023 Трансферы РПЛ. Mixed martial arts (MMA) is a full-contact combat sport that allows a wide variety of fighting techniques and skills from a mixture of other combat sports to be used in competition. MMA: новости, видео, бои, онлайн трансляции mma, расписание боёв и турниров на Sports.ru. UFC 283 takes place Saturday as the year’s first pay-per-view, and MMA Junkie Radio’s “Gorgeous” George and “Goze” will host a live streaming watch-along right here, which kicks off at 8 p.m. ET. In the main event, the vacant light heavyweight title is up for grabs as former champion Glover Teixeira (33-8 MMA, 16-6 UFC) takes on
![[Sports] - Ontario bans MMA betting as UFC match-fixing scandal hits fever pitch](https://external-preview.redd.it/pQCxB1EK0nVNmPoJCWiDRh07yB5sb09Xeb-TdtOAR7Q.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=b10fcbc295cd6849c41b12efb0c8fea3722e35a8 "[Sports] - Ontario bans MMA betting as UFC match-fixing scandal hits fever pitch")
